A look at potential banana peels for some teams, with specific instructions for paramedics and physios
Andy Zaltzman13-Feb-20157:37
Two Men Out: Crunching weak Achilles’ heels
Achilles, the celebrity mythical Ancient Greek warrior with a phenomenal combat record and a ripping six-pack, was ultimately slain by his one point of weakness – his heel. According to some unconfirmed and non-contemporary media reports, his mother, attempting to extricate her bouncing fictional baby boy from a prophesy foretelling his early death, popped down to the underworld, grasped the little nipper by the ankle, and dunked him into the River Styx like a biscuit. The Styx’s magical waters allegedly bestowed invulnerability, but his mum’s firm grip prevented the sensational life-preserving liquid touching his heel, leaving that one part of his body compromised. Eventually, the lad copped a cheeky poison arrow on his one non-immortal body part, and popped his clogs as divinely predicted.Clearly, this was sloppy parenting – anyone with children knows that, if you are going to bother taking your child all the way to the underworld to dip him or her in the River Styx, you make sure you adopt a two-dip strategy, holding your bundle of joy alternately by each leg. Or just jump in yourself and swim around for a while to make sure the little blighter is fully and certifiably invulnerabilised. But the point is that even the strongest have their fragilities, and this is as true in cricket World Cups as it was in made-up stories from thousands of years ago.Here, then, is a two-run-down of the Official Achilles Heels of the competing nations at this World Cup.Australia: Knockout inexperience
There are no glaring weaknesses in the co-hosts’ squad. Their spin options might be limited in the unlikely event of being faced with a tweaky dustbowl, but that sentence could probably be fairly written about all the other contenders in this tournament. They do not have massive depths of experience – only four of their 15 have played more than 60 ODIs, which is roughly as many as the average Indian player picks up inadvertently from a family holiday to Sri Lanka – but nor are they a bunch of callow novices (eight of the remaining 11 players have at least 30 ODI caps).If they have an Achilles heel, however, it may be a lack of experience in major tournaments, and especially in the so-called “business end” of those tournaments.(A quick side-note: The well-worn term “the business end” is completely inappropriate for the latter stages of this World Cup. The actual business end is in fact at the beginning, during the month-long group stage featuring too many matches drawn out over too long a period, a structure designed, one assumes, to maximise commercial revenue, ideally without totally annihilating spectator interest. The knockout phase of this tournament, which might usually be called the “business end” if you like to use commerce-related terms to make sport seem more important and sensible than it (a) is or (b) is supposed to be, is in fact the “sporting end” of this World Cup.)In the 2000s, Australia won 34 and lost four of their completed matches in World Cup and Champions Trophy tournaments. Thus far in this decade, by contrast, they have won four and lost four, with only one win in five matches against other top-8 nations. Only three of the current squad have won a knockout match at an ICC 50-over tournament – Michael Clarke, Shane Watson and Mitchell Johnson. Could this lack of experience in navigating their way to a trophy be an area of vulnerability if a quarter-final, semi-final or final reaches a decisive pivot? Put on an extra pair of socks.It should not be a major issue. Australia have won 16 of their last 19 ODIs at home. They have potency and depth in their batting and firepower in their bowling. More importantly, they are wearing bright yellow kits again, like Australian teams are supposed to in limited-overs cricket. Also, sport is littered with examples of vastly experienced players and teams collapsing like a shy soufflé in a Reveal Your Most Embarrassing Secret competition; and of less-seasoned campaigners campaigning rather more effectively. Australia’s lack of experience at the business/non-business end of major tournaments will not be significant. Probably.Sri Lanka: Middle and lower-middle order batting
Sri Lanka’s top four are good. Three of them are very good, including Kumar Sangakkara, who averages over 50 in ODIs this decade. Angelo Mathews is also very good. In the current World Cup cycle, he has scored close to 3000 runs at an average of 42, almost all of them whilst batting at No. 5 or 6. Despite his efforts, Sri Lanka’s Nos. 5 to 8 have the fourth-worst collective average (24.2) of the 14 World Cup teams in ODIs since April 2011 (ahead only of Zimbabwe, Scotland and Ireland), and the fifth-worst strike rate (82.0, ahead of the same three plus the UAE). Excluding Mathews, Sri Lanka’s middle order averages 19.7, which would put them ahead only of Ireland, and then only fractionally. By comparison, Nos. 5 to 8 for India, South Africa and Australia average over 30 and score at around 90 per 100 balls. Place the entire ankle/heel area into a reinforced orthopaedic boot.It is possible to win a World Cup without consistent contributions from the middle order – Australia in 1987 and Pakistan in 1992 both did so (although their middle orders both came good in the semis and final). But it helps if this weakness is compensated by a top-notch bowling attack. Sri Lanka’s bowling attack is medium-notch, at best.”Strategy, shmategy. All we need is a fat lady to show up and sing”•BCBEngland: The form of two key players
Emerging from the curious self-inflicted adminichaos of the two big sackings of 2014, England have shown flickers of promise. They have many players who have shown that they can make match-turning contributions, but few who have done so regularly.And of those few, two are struggling for form. Eoin Morgan has averaged 19 in 21 ODI innings in the past year (prior to which he averaged 42), and has failed to reach 6 in eight of his last 11 innings, either side of his excellent century against Australia at the SCG in January. Stuart Broad, who took 130 wickets at 25 before injury curtailed his 2011 World Cup, has taken 43 wickets at 39 since then, his decline especially pronounced in the latter stages of an innings (before the new-balls-from-each-end regulation came into force in October 2011, Broad averaged 20.9 in overs 36-50; under the current rule, he has averaged 32.0 in the final 15 overs) (although his average in the first 35 overs has also headed north) (but not quite as drastically).With so much unproven potential, England will need their small core of relative veterans not only to step up to the plate, but also to eat their dinner off that plate without spilling their food all over their trousers. Significant lower-leg protection requiredIt does not take much for unproven potential to become proven potential. And, barring group-stage meltdown, it will only need to prove that potential for a three-game burst. Nevertheless, Morgan was until recently one of England’s best-ever ODI batsmen, and Broad was until the 2011 World Cup one of its best-ever ODI bowlers. England needs those two players back. If they still exist. For a fortnight at the end of March.New Zealand: The Immutable Law Of New Zealand Losing In World Cup Semi-finals
New Zealand seem to have everything required to win a World Cup. The can both construct and explode with the bat. They are laden with allrounders. They have youth and experience. And experienced youth. They are in form and at home. However, they are New Zealand. New Zealand lose in cricket World Cup semi-finals. That is a fact as old as time itself. Assuming time began in 1975, which is a matter for the scientists and historians to argue about. The Kiwis have reached the semi-finals in six World Cups, including three of the last five. Of those six semi-finals, they have lost six, including six of the last six. In the most recent three of those – 1999 against Pakistan, and 2007 and 2011 against Sri Lanka – they were convincingly beaten by the team which went on to lose the final. Put on two extra pairs of socks, one of which should be quite thick and woolly.I have no idea how much facts like these reverberate around players’ heads at critical moments. Considerably less than they reverberate around supporters’ heads, I would imagine. But perhaps enough to make a difference. That said, Immutable Laws are often broken, as any half-decent corporate tax lawyer would no doubt tell you.Sometimes, a sporting leap forward that was expected to require a great well of belief transpires simply to be a matter of beating a team to which you are manifestly superior. Any semi-final Kiwi doubts are likely to be much more easily doused if they find themselves playing against a team which is not South Africa or Australia.But still… six out of six. If you have crashed your bicycle into the same tree six times in six successive bike rides, you will almost certainly feel less than 100% confident next time you cycle past that spot. Even if the tree has been cut down. And you have a nicer bike than you did previously.Bangladesh: Basic probability
Aside from the manifold cricketing shortcomings at the highest level, Bangladesh must defeat the cruel mistress that is mathematics. They have never won an ODI in Australia or New Zealand. Their ODI record against other Test nations outside Asia is as frightening as a slab of cheddar in a well-guarded bank vault. The conditions will not suit their multi-prong spin attack. Their batting is not great. Encase entire leg in concrete.If Bangladesh do make it through the group stage, which is improbable, the chances of them overcoming the vast probability of defeat for three consecutive knockout games are roughly the same as those of a wildebeest turning up at the Serengeti at the end of a long, hard migration with the ice cream he bought from a snack vendor by the migration start gate still intact and unmelted. However, on the plus side, 100% of all previous World Cups in Oceania have been won by a team from the Asian subcontinent which had never previously lifted the trophy. That is a cast-iron fact. For the next few weeks, at least.Afghanistan: History, Geography
Afghanistan cricket has been one of the great sporting stories of recent years. If they win the World Cup, it will be the greatest story ever told, in sport or reality, real or fictional, at any point in the past, present or future. They might have had a better chance if Afghanistan had been in a different place, and had an entirely different history involving considerably more cricket and considerably less violence, outside interference and tribal megasquabbles. Encase entire leg in concrete, encase concrete in more concrete.Afghanistan will not win the World Cup. But their match in Canberra against Bangladesh next Wednesday could be one of the highlights of the group stage. And their rise is a screaming rebuke to the reduction of the World Cup to a 10-team tournament.Scotland: Climate, Population
I have spent a large amount of time in Scotland during the alleged summer. It rains there. Very, very often. Cricket is a hard sport to perfect when it rains very, very often during the summer. Especially when you are a country with a small population, most of whom do not like cricket. Encase entire leg in concrete, encase concrete in more concrete, coat outer concrete layer with lead sheeting.Scotland captain Preston Mommsen will not have to worry about the Scottish First Minister hi-jacking a moment of sporting triumph, as Alex Salmond did so memorably and idiotically when Andy Murray won Wimbledon. Scotland will also not win the World Cup. But: Christchurch, February 23. England v Scotland. Scottish cricketing immortality awaits… as does English cricketing immortality, of a rather less desirable nature.